What is the plan?

Printed in the Hobart Mercury, May 13 2026

The great American Benjamin Franklin is credited with the line, “failing to plan is simply planning to fail.” Franklin was no armchair philosopher relaxing in Salamanca Cove with a tidy chardonnay. He was a self-made polymath—scientist, diplomat, inventor and nation-builder—who understood that ideas are only as valuable as the systems that carry them forward. He paired curiosity with discipline, and vision with execution. Tasmania could use a dose of that thinking right now.

Because for all Tasmania’s natural advantages, this state is edging toward an economic crisis that has been years in the making. Not through lack of effort or goodwill, but through a persistent failure to plan with clarity and to act with discipline and resolve. We have drifted, rather than steering the good ship Tasmania into the fast lane.

It is easy—almost too easy—to catalogue where things have gone wrong. But as Mark Twain is often quoted, “history doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme.” The task in front of us is not to complain about the last verse, but to write the next one—and make it worth singing.

That requires something rather unfashionable: discipline, sometimes referred to as stoicism. The Stoics of ancient Greece had as their core philosophy a focus on what can be controlled, accepting what you can’t, but acting with reason, discipline, and virtue where you can. The stoics understood that while events cannot be influenced or averted, the response can, and should, be controlled. In public policy terms, that means accepting the realities in front of us and planning accordingly, rather than wishing them away – hope is not a strategy. Farmers understand this incredibly well – they are the epitome of stoicism.

Tasmania needs to plan for an agricultural sector that is increasingly tethered to global markets, multinational processors, and a supermarket duopoly with immense pricing power. That reality is not changing. The question is whether Tasmania positions its farmers as price-takers at the end of the chain, or as value-creators with leverage and options.

We need to plan for an energy system that does more than keep the lights on. Tasmania has a genuine competitive advantage in renewable hydroelectric energy, but we risk the value generated leaking offshore or across Bass Strait. If we are serious about economic resilience, we must ensure that more of that value is captured here—through industry, through jobs, and through sensible reinvestment.

We need to plan for fertiliser production on our own soil. Tasmania has the energy, the raw inputs, and the expertise. In a world of fragile supply chains and geopolitical uncertainty, local production is not a luxury—it is rapidly becoming a strategic necessity.

We need to plan for public money to be allocated with transparency and purpose. Every dollar spent should be measured against its long-term contribution to the state, not its short-term political convenience. That requires a level of honesty that has been in short supply.

We need to plan for the next phase of energy-driven manufacturing. For too long, we have relied on importing raw and low-value materials and using our cheap energy to value add them to the benefit of offshore corporations. The future lies in value-adding what we grow and produce here—turning our comparative, yet unrealised advantage into competitive and realised strength.

We need to plan for the intelligent use of our stored water. That means balancing energy generation, agricultural productivity and recreation in a way that maximises long-term benefit rather than short-term gain. Build irrigation for future demand, not just for right now.

And we need a plan for fairness—particularly in how local government levies rates on primary producers. The current system punishes agricultural productivity rather than rewarding it. State government has a role to play in setting these rules that are equitable and consistent and to incentivise value-adding.

None of this is radical. None of it is beyond us. But all of it requires something we have lacked: a coherent, long-term strategic plan backed by the discipline to follow through.

The stoics would remind us that the obstacle is in fact the way. Tasmania’s challenges are not unique, but our response to them can be. We can continue to drift, reacting to events as they unfold, or we can take control of our trajectory.

Franklin would have recognised the choice immediately. The question is: will we?

What’s the plan?